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The US government believes that “cracks have emerged” in Vladimir Putin’s power in Russia following the attempted uprising by the Wagner mercenary group at the weekend.
In a series of TV interviews with US broadcasters on Sunday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said it was “too soon to tell” what would happen eventually.
[ Ukraine war latest: Mystery surrounds Wagner chief’s whereabouts and details of deal to end uprising ]
He described events in Russia as “a moving picture” and said “we have not seen the last act yet”.
He said Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had directly challenged Putin’s authority and also publicly questioned the official premise for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Blinken said that 16 months ago Russian forces were on the doorstep of Kyiv, thought they would take the city in a couple of days and were seeking to erase Ukraine from the map as an independent country. He said that now “Russia is having to defend Moscow against mercenaries of its own making”.
Media in the United States on Saturday reported that US intelligence had detected in advance signs that a crisis was developing within Russia.
Reports said that intelligence officials had briefed senior figures in the Biden administration and in the US military on Wednesday that Prigozhin was preparing to take action against senior Russian defence leaders.
However, unlike in advance of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces last year when the US publicly spoke about the information in its possession to warn of the impending attack, on this occasion it remained silent on what it knew.
Blinken on Sunday would not comment on what US intelligence services had learned in advance. However, he said it was no secret that tensions had been increasing in Russia. “This was a rising storm,” he said.
[ How will the Wagner revolt affect the Ukraine war? ]
Throughout Friday night and Saturday the US said very little publicly about the Wagner uprising, other than it was monitoring the situation.
It appeared that Washington did not want to be accused of trying to orchestrate or promote a coup in Russia.
However, it is clear that the White House took the Russian crisis very seriously, particularly in relation to the security of Moscow’s 6,000 nuclear weapons.
US president Joe Biden convened his full national security cabinet on Saturday morning.
He and vice-president Kamala Harris were briefed by Blinken, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, the defence secretary Lloyd Austin, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen Mark Milley, CIA chief William Burns and director of national intelligence Avril Haines.
Biden ordered that there should be close co-ordination with key allies in Europe.
Blinken said the president had told his cabinet members on Saturday to “fan out and engage” with their counterparts.
Biden himself spoke with French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and UK prime minister Rishi Sunak.
[ The Wagner rebellion has been called off but Putin has never looked weaker ]
The White House said they had discussed the situation in Russia and also “affirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine”.
Sullivan had been scheduled to travel to Denmark to attend a conference on Ukraine but instead accompanied Biden to the presidential country retreat, Camp David in Maryland, where they continued to monitor the situation. Milley put off a planned trip to Israel and Jordan as the Russia crisis intensified.
Blinken said the events at the weekend had raised a lot of profound questions about Russia and the Putin government that would be answered in the days and weeks ahead.
“I think you’ve seen cracks emerge that weren’t there before.”
The Biden administration is not speculating on what the Wagner rebellion means for the future of Putin’s control over Russia. It says it wants to focus intensely on Ukraine and ensuring that the government in Kyiv has all it needs to take back its territory.
Asked on ABC News whether the rebellion in Russia was over, Blinken said: “So much that is beneath the surface has – has now surfaced, again, in terms of questioning the very premises for the war, in terms of questioning the conduct of the war, in terms of questioning what good this has actually done for Russia.”
[ How Wagner, a Frankenstein’s monster, eventually turned on its creator Putin ]
“And, of course, it’s been exactly the opposite. This has been a devastating, strategic failure for Putin across virtually every front, economic, military, geopolitical standing. And, fundamentally, what it’s done or not done for the Russian people.
“Having said that, Putin, of course, has put in place a state that is designed around him with control of the media, control of the information space.”
However, while Washington seems to believe the political situation in Russia is still in flux, concerns would appear to have eased about potential danger in relation to nuclear weapons.
Blinken said the US had seen no change to Russia’s posture regarding its nuclear arsenal, although it would continue to look carefully at the issue. He said there had been no change to the US position either.