Poll boosts Geert Wilders but makeup of new Dutch government far from agreed

A new poll has shown that rather than regretting their sharp surge to the right in last month’s general election, Dutch voters would turn out in even greater numbers for far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party if an election were to be held again tomorrow.

Mr Wilders took 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament, 12 ahead of his nearest competition, an amalgam of Labour and GreenLeft. However. a poll this week by Ipsos for television current affairs programme EenVandaag found he would take 47 seats if the election were re-run.

The poll comes as a boost for Mr Wilders as initial coalition talks continue between the four parties of a possible right-wing alliance: his Freedom Party; the “farmer-citizen” party, BBB; New Social Contract led by Pieter Omtzigt; and the VVD, who’ve led the last four coalitions under prime minister Mark Rutte.

The Freedom Party’s additional 10 seats in the new poll would come predominantly at the expense of the VVD. This is,being interpreted as an indication of disapproval among party followers at the decision by Mr Rutte’s successor, Dilan Yesilgöz, not to enter a coalition with Mr Wilders.

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Instead, Ms Yesilgöz says that, depending on the outcome of the current talks, the VVD may support a tightly defined programme for government put forward by a minority Wilders-led coalition – giving her the option to withhold her backing from any of his more contentious policies.

Before the election, Mr Wilders said he had switched focus from contentious anti-EU and anti-Islam issues to more pressing domestic matters such as the pressure on low-income families, but was still keeping immigration on the agenda.

However, the current round of talks has yet to tackle the question of, for example, how Mr Wilders will square his new public image with his previous backing for Nexit, a Dutch Brexit complete with exit referendum – or a ban on mosques and the Koran.

These could cause particular problems for Mr Omtzigt’s centrist supporters, many of whom are dissatisfied that their new party has gone along with the current exploratory talks.

Barring surprise disagreements, this round of talks is scheduled to last until February. If it remains on the rails, it could define a new and historic Dutch far-right government.

If not, the reins will be handed to Labour-GreenLeft leader Frans Timmermans to attempt to form a left-leaning administration by starting the consultation process again – leaving the Netherlands with a caretaker coalition led by Mr Rutte until the summer.

Caretaker defence minister Kajsa Ollongren, in response to Mr Wilders’s insistence that he no longer wants to send money or equipment to Ukraine, warned against “retreating behind the dykes” while the Netherlands needed an international defence policy for its national security.

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