The Politics Fix

The Shinners were the winners this week - until they weren’t

Your essential end-of-week politics catch up, including the one topic guaranteed to make a Minister throw their eyes to heaven

The Politics Fix: LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 08: Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald (pictured) take part in a press conference at the Foreign Press Association on February 8, 2024 in London, England. Sinn Fein's leader, Michelle O'Neil, took up her position as Northern Ireland's First Minister this week as Stormont returned after a two-year hiatus. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who said she will 'reflect' on the poll, showing a drop in support, is pictured at a press conference in London on Thursday. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Jennifer Bray's face
Jennifer Bray
Fri Feb 9 2024 - 11:45

Story of the Week

There was only one political show in town this week and that was the long-delayed return of power-sharing at Stormont.

Surprising absolutely no one, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said she expected a referendum on Irish unity “in this decade”. Cue much downplaying from the Irish and British governments - although eyebrows were raised at the lack of a joint press conference between British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. Could it be that Sunak is still smarting over the Government’s decision to take the UK to court over legacy laws?

On the question of unity, Varadkar and Sunak said it was not the time to be talking about such things and that the focus should be on the day-to-day issues. Good luck to them there.

It’s been a mixed bag for Sinn Féin this week, though. On one hand, the party celebrated a momentous political victory as Michelle O’Neill became the first nationalist First Minister, bringing the party ever closer to achieving their goal of a united Ireland. On the other hand, there were some extremely disappointing poll results which will give not only Mary Lou McDonald pause for thought, but other political leaders too. But more of that later.

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Bust up

Normal hostilities were suspended this week when politicians from all parties dedicated a day of Dáil business to pay tribute to former taoiseach John Bruton who died on Tuesday. As Miriam Lord wrote, Fine Gael’s respect and regard for their former leader was striking in its intensity. John Bruton’s brother Richard, a TD who is respected across all party lines, listened intently to the speeches of his colleagues and delivered an emotional and poignant contribution. Here is the Irish Times obituary, where it is noted that John Bruton had a greater understanding of the unionist position than most politicians in the Republic and for that he was dubbed “John Unionist” by Albert Reynolds. His impatience with constant questions about the North was betrayed when he told a local radio reporter he was tired being asked about “the f**king peace process”.

Banana skin

If there’s one topic guaranteed to make a Minister or their advisors throw their eyes to heaven, it’s the forthcoming Family and Care referendums. “Please, not this again,” was one staffer’s response this week when asked by this writer about whether the referendums would pass or not. That weariness has been laced with apprehension for many in Government amid fears that the whole thing could blow up in their faces. Sighs of relief all round, so, with poll results from The Irish Times and Ipsos B&A which showed that both referendums are on course to pass.

It’s not plain sailing yet though: most voters say they know “hardly anything at all” about the proposed changes.

Tomorrow’s instalment of the poll will focus on the current hot topic: immigration. Stay tuned.

Winners and losers

If the Shinners were the winners in the North this week, they were the losers in the South.

According to the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll, support for Sinn Féin has slumped with the party falling to its lowest level in three years. The results see Sinn Féin support fall to 28 per cent, a six-point drop since the most recent poll in September.

The party is losing support amongst rural voters, older voters and more affluent voters.

Be under no illusion: the results have caused hand-wringing within Sinn Féin, not least because they have come hot on the heels of other polls in national newspapers which showed similar slips. Mary Lou McDonald said she plans to “reflect” on and “analyse” the poll.

The pressure is on.

The Big Read

Don’t miss Harry McGee’s long read on the Healy-Rae brothers. As the Healy-Rae dynasty celebrates 50 years in public life, he looks at how this family from a small mountainous holding near Kilgarvan came to dominate Kerry politics, with a third generation set to continue the tradition.

Plus: What’s causing delays in the provision of creches in new housing developments? As parents struggle to find childcare in Dublin and elsewhere, Cormac McQuinn looks at the issues involved from the high costs for childcare providers to calls for an overhaul of decades old rules.

Hear here

As the US presidential race closes in on a Biden v Trump battle, Irish Times Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan speaks to Hugh Linehan on the Inside Politics podcast

“Joe Biden has sort of framed this as a battle for democracy. And there’s some debate as to who’s actually listening to that message”

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