Nphet fears ‘real trouble’ if Covid-19 cases keep rising

Ireland could be “in real trouble” if a recent rise in Covid-19 cases continues, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned.

After two months of declining numbers progress appears to have stalled, and the reproduction number may now be close to 1, Nphet’s modelling expert Prof Philip Nolan said on Thursday night as 592 cases and 10 deaths were reported.

He said there was “a little bit of concern this may be the beginning of something”.

“We are sailing very close to the wind. A gust of wind in the wrong direction and we’re in real trouble.”

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The stubbornly high case numbers have been linked to the more transmissible B117 variant and greater mobility in the population.

Deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn called on the public to “stick at this for two to three months”, after which brighter days should come “barring unforeseen events”.

A number of Ministers have said they believe the Cabinet will have to outline a clearer picture for the reopening of society when plans to ease restrictions are considered early in April.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said services such as hairdressers may not reopen until late April or May at the earliest, but that consideration would be given to easing the 5km travel limit and restrictions on meeting people outdoors.

However, significant restrictions are expected to remain until the second half of May at least.

Nursing home residents, one of the groups most affected by the pandemic, will be permitted to have two visits a week on compassionate grounds from March 22nd as residents benefit from the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.

Criticism

There was further criticism of vaccine-maker AstraZeneca on Thursday from the Government and the HSE over the reliability of its delivery schedule, but the approval of the one-shot Johnson&Johnson vaccine for use in the EU was welcomed.

Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly said Ireland had an advance agreement for 600,000 Johnson&Johnson doses for the second quarter of the year, with the first of these expected to arrive in late April.

The Health Products Regulatory Authority said it had received a “small number” of reports associated with blood clots following inoculation with the AstraZeneca vaccine. Health authorities in Denmark, Norway and Iceland have temporarily suspended the use of the jab following similar reports.

The authority said the nature of the reports did not raise a concern, and the European Medicines Agency said the number of cases in vaccinated people was no higher than in the general population.