Future of Irish politics is in Micheál Martin’s hands

Micheál Martin’s consequence as a politician outweighs the import of his current term as Taoiseach which ends on December 17th.

Historically he is now a figure of pivotal importance in a period of change. The direction of that change has still to be realised. Upon its eventual outcome, rests his reputation. He is perhaps well on the way to being an opportunist who facilitated the arrival of what he purported to be against. Alternatively he is the visionary leader who held the pass, and kept the barbarians outside the gate.

Ireland itself is in a period of extraordinary political fluidity. It is a mistake to think that we have exchanged old monoliths, for a new one in the form of Sinn Féin.

The party’s consistently impressive opinion poll results, building on its astonishing comeback at the last general election, means it is very well placed. But the general election is likely to be two years or more away. It will only be in the last ten days of that campaign that people will think seriously, in real time, about the choice they have to make.

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Irish political parties today are more likely to be utilitarian vehicles for their supporters’ needs, than larger canvasses for fundamental change. Words like change, justice, equality and progress are reused interchangeably by competing political interests.

But the irrigation channels of policy, regardless of rhetoric, is the market reality of a small state embedded in an EU where, after the seminal events of Brexit, Covid-19 and Ukraine, the centre is stronger and more consequential.

Greenwashing aside, the ultimate issue is climate change, and Irish politics can barely pronounce the platitudes. Understanding, let alone embracing the consequences, including the opportunity is, for the three main parties and their smaller competitors, a long way off.

The general election campaign begins when taoiseach Varadkar leaves Áras an Uachtaráin with his seal of office on December 17th. The fight is twofold. Firstly it is between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the centre, or what is left of it.

Varadkar was first out of the traps last week, proposing a voter pact with Fianna Fáil. Over six years of cohabitation since 2016, the net result of their arrangements has been a mutual shrivelling.

Martin’s political position is grid-marked between four critical decisions. Two were tactical, and two strategic. The first strategic decision was to agree a confidence and supply arrangement with Fine Gael in 2016. The second was to go into Coalition in 2020, after the serious setback of the general election. In leaving Sinn Féin roam free as the main party of opposition, it platformed them magnificently since.

The tactical decisions were firstly, having decided to align with Fine Gael in 2016, not to accept Enda Kenny’s offer of coalition. Secondly, having opted for confidence and supply for a fixed two years, he took a personal decision, independently of party colleagues, to extend its term. That became the basis for Sinn Féin’s recovery after disastrous presidential and local and European elections in 2019.

By the end of that year the value of change or the prospect of it moved from Fianna Fáil to them. That was the basis of their harvest in the subsequent general election which the course of the campaign enhanced. Irish politics as restructured, primarily by Martin, in the form of the present Coalition has assisted them since.

What has served Martin well is not the wisdom of his political judgment, but the tenacity of his character. He is completely in charge of his party, not because he has persuaded or charmed his opponents, but because having missed their moment in the immediate aftermath of the last election, they have never found another opportunity since.

Martin is a man with a plan. It is straightforward. Firstly it is to survive, and he has perfected the art. Secondly, it is to wait on events and recycle them for his use.

The turn in the road will be in the spring of 2024 when he must make strategic decisions. Does he leave Government to go to Brussels as European Commissioner, retire, or lead Fianna Fáil into the next election? It is unlikely he has decided and any retirement is likely to be involuntary. But there is a path back to the taoiseach’s office.

There is a point past which Sinn Féin cannot be kept out of government. What Martin needs is to pull them back on election day from the certainty of where they are now, to a position where an alternative is viable. Sinn Féin, on four or five fewer percentage points and others commensurately increased, could be a game changer.

If he did manage that, everything done to date is realigned in the light of an outcome parts of the Irish establishment would comically see as equivalent to turning back the Turks at the gates of Vienna.

More likely now is that the tide goes out and Sinn Féin gets into government, perhaps with Fianna Fáil. What was done is then seen as helping deliver the outcome Martin said he was most opposed to. Historically, it is the difference between being of passing importance, and part of an aftermath rather than a pivotal figure who fundamentally turned events. It is game on now.