Election no cure as Madagascar is plagued by crisis

The other day on the Avenue de l'Indépendance in Toliara, southwest Madagascar, a barefoot homeless man who had clearly suffered a stroke hauled his uneven body in 40-degree heat towards the shade of a palm tree. Once there he stood looking at nothing in particular, a plastic bag clenched in his functioning hand, his dust-encrusted overcoat hanging open to reveal trousers that by force of nature – sun, wind and dirt – had become shorts.

To his fellow Toliarans sauntering past on foot or in rickshaws, most struggling themselves with varying levels of poverty, he seemed invisible. No one but he might ever know of the loneliness and squalid conditions in which the violent event that compounded his already difficult life had taken place. But in many ways he encapsulated the desperate, shameful situation of this Indian Ocean island nation, crippled by political crisis and corruption, suffering quietly, and staring helplessly into an unclear future following disputed presidential and parliamentary elections.

Political troubles
The choice facing the Malagasy people in a presidential run-off on December 20th ensured that, far from moving the country on from its political troubles as promised by these "élections de sortie de la crise", Madagascar is about to return to past ways, regardless of who wins.

Hery Rajaonarimampianina, who has been declared victor even before the country's electoral court has dealt with some 300 petitions alleging fraud, is the proxy candidate of Andry Rajoelina, the former disc jockey who grabbed power with the help of the military in 2009 and who has since presided over economic stagnation, the obliteration of what existed
of a Malagasy middle class, and the widespread impoverishment of the state's 21 million people. After Rajoelina's coup, foreign donors slashed aid. More than nine in 10 Malagasy now live on less than $2 a day.

Rajaonarimampianina's rival is Jean Louis Robinson, proxy candidate of Marc Ravalomanana, the president Rajoelina ousted in 2009. Ravalomanana lives in exile in South Africa where he is under investigation for alleged crimes against humanity for which he was convicted in absentia in Madagascar: scores of people were shot dead by guards at the presidential palace when Rajoelina marched with his supporters through the capital, Antananarivo, to seize power.

Both former presidents have made it clear that, should their man win, they intend to return to Malagasy politics and play a major role. Both candidates have a history of serving their sponsors: Rajaonarimampianina was minister for finance under Rajoelina. Robinson, a doctor, was Ravalomanana's health minister. Both cases have prompted analogies to Russia's Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev.

Normality
In sun-baked Toliara, known as Madagascar's "sun city", most people questioned about politics simply want the electoral process to be over and for some semblance of normality to resume. "I don't really mind who is the president at this stage, so long as we have a legitimately elected one," said Justin, a civil servant. "We just want to get on with things, and for the donors to start helping us get moving again."

His view is a common one here, and yet it illustrates how the Malagasy people’s expectations of their politicians exclude any established notion that power involves responsibility.

The idea of a state providing crucial and basic services such as health, education and infrastructure seems to have eluded both political class and electorate.

Instead, in a spectacular country rich in biodiversity and awash with natural resources including petrol, gas, gold, rosewood, sapphires and other precious stones, the focus remains on seeking help from international donors.

Country's riches
The people of Madagascar profit little from their country's riches. The island's roads are among the worst in Africa. Acute child malnutrition is at a critical level.

Public schoolteachers’ salaries are paid thanks to donations from parents. Nothing gets fixed. There is no programme to repair the many school buildings abandoned after the most recent cyclone ripped off their roofs. Contract workers in many government departments have not been paid for years.

There is no state healthcare system. Madagascar scored a poor 28 out of 100 on Transparency International’s most recent Corruption Perceptions Index (the closer to 100, the cleaner the state).

Highlighting the almost biblical proportions of its predicament, the island has been hit by its worst plague of locusts since the 1950s, and the bubonic plague, or Black Death, which wiped out a third of Europe’s population in the 14th century, killed 42 people in a fresh outbreak between September and early December last year, and is spreading.

Madagascar needs a cure. These elections might not provide one.